What will be PM Imran Khan biggest challenges: Five Main Risks

What will be PM Imran Khan biggest challenges: Five Main Risks

PM Imran Khan biggest challenges: Exactly one year ago, he had identified five risks that Prime Minister Imran Khan faced in 2021.

  • Risk 1: A weak and unbalanced economic recovery.
  • Risk 2: Division and disruption throughout the system.
  • Risk 3: Escalation of violence in Afghanistan.
  • Risk 4: greater alienation and disengagement from the “periphery”.
  • Risk 5: Distrust and disengagement from the majority citizen.

Today, as I try to close the year on a note of optimism, let me first offer my assessment of how well PM Khan has managed these five risks.

PM Imran Khan biggest challenges

At the first risk, I believe that Prime Minister Khan has performed better than he or his clown car of communications advisers would allow us to believe. Inflation has seriously lowered the value of GDP growth in the economy in 2021, but the post-pandemic recovery in Pakistan was better than any serious observer expected. The worst aspect of Prime Minister Khan’s economic management in 2021 was not the economic performance of the country itself, but the way in which economic woes became existential tropes. The Finance Ministry became a merry-go-round, with Abdul Hafeez Shaikh lurching first, and Shaukat Tarin leaving to fend for himself.

The absence of a coherent and mature economic narrative from Islamabad almost forced the governor of the state bank, Raza Baqir, into the fray. Many of the robust long-term measures to digitize the economy and to force banks to engage more seriously with consumers rather than being printers of Treasury bills have waned in public view as the State Bank takes over. communication operations over a period of time. The government that has an unrealistic appetite for the circus acts as its mouthpiece.

In the second risk, even after the Notification Gate, PM Khan has managed to keep his head above the water. The real story about the risk to the opposition government has not been the PML-N or the PPP, but rather the relentless ability of the government itself to generate crisis after crisis on its own. More worrying than all this is the emergence of the TLP as a viable and long-term threat to traditional political machinations. Will the consequences of Notification Gate also mean a moderate TLP in the coming months? This is the hope trusted by most traditional Pakistani politicians and elites. While there can be little doubt that the genesis of BPD is as inorganic as any other long-term affliction Pakistan faces, there is also little doubt that the group’s appeal is now as organic as the sinners and saints that make up our political tapestry. .More on TLP below.

The third risk

The third risk did not materialize to the extent that it could have. This was partly due to the way Ashraf Ghani left Afghanistan and partly due to the robustness of the Doha process (for which Zalmay Khalilzad will never get the credit he deserves). But the untold story of the relative calm in Afghanistan from August 15 onward is also that of the skillful and tireless diplomacy of Special Envoy Mohammad Sadiq, Ambassador Mansoor Ahmad Khan, the behind-the-scenes work of the former Director-General of the ISI and now Corps Commander. Peshawar, Lieutenant General Faiz Hameed, and the constant influence of the National Security Advisor, Dr. Moeed Yusuf. Critics of PM Khan can’t have our cake and eat it too. If he’s responsible for the plethora of missteps and mistakes his regime has made, he too takes credit for naming Sadiq and Yusuf and letting them do his job for him.

The fourth risk has been Prime Minister Khan’s weakest and most disappointing failure. He should have been the prime minister at the forefront of every tragedy, consoling the mothers of missing persons, the children of martyred soldiers, the victims of systemic and targeted attacks, and the protesters raising their voices against injustice. Instead, he has been locked up in Islamabad, constantly duped and misled by people who have cultivated their vulnerability to incessant and breathless praise.

He began the year by telling Hazaras protesting in Quetta that they could not blackmail him into expressing solidarity with them, continued his track record of over three years of outsourcing the management of political challenges, such as the Pashtun Tahaffuz Movement (PTM), not civilians, and he continued to refuse to compromise with the legitimate and elected opposition by calling them all thieves who do not deserve the stature of his political peers.

Women in general, Baloch students, residents of the newly merged districts, Sindhis on the fringes of wealth and pomp enjoyed by the mainstream of the PPP, organizers of the Aurat March, trade unionists, health workers, and a host of non-elites for those who access Zaman Park Impossible Rolodexes were pushed further to the periphery in 2021. What’s behind the calculation why you’ve been so inaccessible to causes, like missing persons, about which you used to be so vocal and strident?

The fifth risk For PM Imran Khan

This can be explained by the fifth risk: distrust and disengagement from the public. A year ago, he had warned about the metastasizing nature of the appeal of narratives like the one advocated by the TLP. The formula is not difficult to understand. At under 23, the average age in Pakistan is both the chicken that lays the eggs and the barbed wire rope. More than 110 million Pakistanis are under 23 years of age. The vast majority of them are not part of any of the things that excite the Pakistani elite. There are no start-ups, no incubators, and no venture capitalists to bail them out. There are no seats in LUMS, NUST or QAU for them. Coffee or dinner dates or pre-Rishta orientations are a distant dream.

Elite Pakistan, the one that runs parliament, the military, TV channels and newspapers, and even the best TikTok channels, lacks something that, even more than jobs and interest-free loans, can help the Pakistani youth. And that’s a sense of community. Pakistan’s social capital is already very scarce. How can these depleted reserves be renewed and renewed, especially in the cities of Pakistan? This is the generational challenge facing Pakistani leaders. So far, your answers do not inspire confidence.

It’s hard to get rid of the stench of the Sialkot lynching. Like so many others, I have been consumed by a sense of pain and shame at the state of a public discourse in which such a horrible crime was committed, en masse, with almost no substantial impact on the inner core of how Pakistanis communicate with each other. one. others about their country and their future. But the bestial violence in Sialkot offers another entry point for engagement with this fifth risk in Pakistani discourse.

Why is Prime Minister Khan’s impressive handling of the Covid-19 pandemic, or his expansion of the BISP social protection mechanism through the expansive Ehsaas program, or even his government’s robust handling of the Afghanistan crisis, Hasn’t it gained wider traction?

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One argument may be that a leader who is too scared, too foolish, or too settled in his bubble cannot enthuse and engage young Pakistan in the way so many radicals and extremists routinely do. The solution is not to shy away from the challenge of the extremists, but to offer them a more vivid and exciting version of the future of Pakistan.

The problem is that PM Imran Khan’s biggest challenges have spent the first three years or more of his time as prime minister sitting in the same container in which he happily traveled to Islamabad. Now that the tractor car that has been towing him seems to be running out of gas, PM Khan seems deflated and out of ideas. In 2022, he will not repair the damaged relationships between himself and the selectors that will hold him and the PTI in power. It will be the success with which you short-circuit the equation and relate directly to the voters. Is the leader of the so-called youths too old and gray to understand the situation and adapt to it? The answer to this question will shape Imran Khan’s 2022.

Happy New Year to all Pakistanis, and especially to my readers. May Allah forgive our sins and bless us with our best year yet.

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